Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting4-5
- Trey YesavagePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso singled to center, Ward scored, Rutschman to second, Henderson to third.5–6
- 9Rutschman walked, Cowser scored, Henderson to second, Ward to third.5–5
- 9Henderson walked, Holliday scored, Ward to second, Cowser to third.5–4
- 9Holliday singled to right, Taveras scored.5–3
- 9Taveras tripled to right, Mayo scored.5–2
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Lukes scored on fielding error by right fielder Cowser.5–1
- 8Okamoto doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Lukes scored.4–1
- 4Clement singled to center, Sánchez scored.2–1
- 4Sánchez doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Henderson singled to center, Jackson scored, Ward to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -131 / BAL +108
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- BAL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 17–1512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–27 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29–3 | 31–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 18–23 BAL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.