Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 13Cowser homered to right center (425 feet), Alexander scored.7–9
- 13Holliday hit sacrifice fly to center, Taveras scored, Alexander to second.7–7
- 13Taveras doubled to right, Jackson scored.7–6
- 13Fortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Palacios scored.7–5
- 13Mullins singled to left, Dunn scored, Palacios to second.6–5
- 12Orioles challenge twice (home-plate collision upheld; tag play overturned): Henderson reaches on fielders choice (1B Aranda); Cowser scores.5–5
- 12Aranda hit sacrifice fly to left, Simpson scored.5–4
- 11Jackson singled to left, Alonso scored, Jackson to second.4–4
- 11Alonso singled to left, Rutschman scored on error on throwing error by left fielder Simpson, Alonso to second.4–3
- 11Mesa Jr. homered to right center (421 feet), Mullins scored.4–2
- 8Palacios singled to right, Dunn scored.2–2
- 7Ward singled to right, Alexander scored on throwing error by right fielder Mesa Jr., Ward to second.1–2
- 7Alexander singled to center, Taveras scored.1–1
- 6Aranda homered to right center (371 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -114 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- TB: Elo 54.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +28 Elo | TB 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 14–1316th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–17 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–8 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23–3 | 28–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–24 BAL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.