Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Hunter FeducciaBatting3-4
- Jonathan HeasleyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vilade walked, Mesa Jr. scored, Palacios to second, Fortes to third.2–11
- 7Alexander homered to left center (399 feet), Cowser scored.1–11
- 6Henderson homered to right center (419 feet).1–9
- 6Vilade grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Aranda scored, Palacios out at second.1–8
- 5Alexander doubled to left, Mayo scored and Taveras scored.0–8
- 3O'Neill singled to left, Mayo scored.0–6
- 1Alexander singled to right, Alonso scored and Mayo scored, Taveras to third.0–5
- 1Taveras singled to right, Rutschman scored, Mayo to second, Alonso to third.0–3
- 1Henderson homered to right (392 feet), Ward scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / BAL +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 54.9%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -113
- BAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +34 Elo | TB 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 16–1311th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–19 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–8 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24–3 | 29–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–26 BAL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.