Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor MartinPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Basallo homered to right center (405 feet), Holliday scored and Henderson scored.1–6
- 2Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Jackson scored, Alexander to third.1–3
- 2Holliday singled to left, Taveras scored, Alexander to second, Jackson to third.1–2
- 2Alexander reached on infield single to second, Basallo scored, Jackson to second, Taveras to third.1–1
- 1Aranda singled to right, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -114 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- TB: Elo 55.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 15–1312th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–18 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–8 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23–3 | 29–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–25 BAL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.