Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Sánchez homered to right (394 feet), Sosa scored, Springer scored and Varsho scored.1–8
- 6Springer singled to left, Valenzuela scored, Sosa to third.1–4
- 6Pinango homered to center (408 feet).1–3
- 5Hernández reached on infield single to shortstop, Marsee scored.1–2
- 3Okamoto singled to left, Varsho scored, Sánchez to third.0–2
- 2Clement homered to left center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML MIA +102 / TOR -123
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.9%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 15–1313th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–33 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 9–16 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 33–20–2 | 24–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.