Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caissie singled to right, Sanoja scored.8–2
- 8Marsee grounded out to third, Lopez scored, Stowers to third.7–2
- 8Stowers doubled to left, Hicks scored, Lopez to third.6–2
- 6Clement homered to left center (372 feet).5–2
- 6Sanoja doubled to left, Marsee scored and Stowers scored.5–1
- 6Stowers doubled to left, Hicks scored.3–1
- 5Pinango singled to center, Sosa scored, Lukes to third.2–1
- 5Caissie doubled to center, Sanoja scored.2–0
- 1Lopez hit sacrifice fly to left, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML MIA +124 / TOR -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.4%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 15–1210th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–33 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 8–16 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–20–2 | 23–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.