Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Okamoto homered to right center (393 feet).1–2
- 5Lukes doubled to right, Heineman scored.1–1
- 1Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML MIA +129 / TOR -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +57 Elo | TOR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 16–1310th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–34 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 9–17 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 34–20–2 | 25–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.