Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin VothPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Clement scored and Springer scored.6–5
- 7Mcadoo homered to right center (369 feet), Varsho scored.4–5
- 7Okamoto homered to left (397 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–5
- 5Basallo homered to left center (381 feet).0–5
- 5Alonso homered to right center (403 feet).0–4
- 4Holliday homered to right (406 feet).0–3
- 3Basallo hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored.0–2
- 3Rutschman walked, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, Ward to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML TOR +105 / BAL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 46.3%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | TOR: Adam Macko (no track record yet) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 17–1411th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 148221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–27 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29–3 | 30–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 17–23 BAL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.