Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Yohendrick PinangoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pinango homered to right (421 feet), Okamoto scored and Clement scored.5–9
- 8Clement doubled to left, Lukes scored, Okamoto to third.2–9
- 7McAdoo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clement scored on throwing error by second baseman Holliday, Pinango out at second.1–9
- 6Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored, Henderson to third.0–9
- 6Henderson doubled to center, Alexander scored, Ward to third.0–8
- 6Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Ward grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Clement. Cowser scores. Alexander to 3rd. Holliday out at 2nd. Ward to 1st.0–7
- 3Cowser homered to right center (424 feet), Alonso scored and Basallo scored.0–6
- 3Basallo doubled to right, Rutschman scored, Alonso to third.0–3
- 3Alonso singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.0–2
- 2Cowser grounded out to second, Alonso scored, Basallo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML TOR +114 / BAL -137
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 18–1511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29–3 | 32–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 18–24 BAL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.