Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez reached on infield single to third, Vázquez scored.10–6
- 9Peña singled to right, Meyers scored, Vázquez to second.10–5
- 9Rodríguez doubled to left, Gonzales scored.10–4
- 8Lowe homered to right (356 feet), Mangum scored and Triolo scored.9–4
- 6Mangum hit sacrifice bunt, Rodríguez scored, Mangum to first on throwing error by third baseman Paredes.6–4
- 6Cruz homered to center (419 feet), O'Hearn scored and Gonzales scored.5–4
- 4Peña grounded into fielder's choice to left, Matthews scored, Vázquez out at second.2–4
- 3Walker singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.2–3
- 2Rodríguez homered to right center (383 feet), Gonzales scored. challenged call on the field was overturned2–2
- 1Alvarez homered to left center (363 feet), Peña scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML PIT -102 / HOU -119
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.3%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -108
- PIT +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +4 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +37 Elo | HOU 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 13–1624th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–31 | 28–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25–2 | 33–24–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.