Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker homered to right (348 feet), Peña scored and Alvarez scored.2–9
- 5Paredes doubled to left, Trammell scored and Walker scored.2–6
- 5Trammell reached on infield single to second, Peña scored, Walker to second.2–4
- 5Chourio singled to center, Mitchell scored, Yelich to second.2–3
- 2Peña homered to left (392 feet), Meyers scored.1–3
- 2Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jake Meyers singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Bauers. Cam Smith scores.1–1
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Turang scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -117 / HOU -103
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -106
- HOU +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +52 Elo | MIL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 12–1524th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301561 | Elo rating | 149017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–2 | 32–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–4 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.