St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4
- Dustin MayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frelick scored on error, Chourio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Winn, Yelich to second.1–2
- 8Yelich singled to right, Mitchell scored, Frelick to third.1–1
- 4Torres tripled to right, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML STL +148 / MIL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.1%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +100 Elo | MIL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 18–116th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 18th of 301487 | Elo rating | 15592nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–22 | 31–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27–3 | 23–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 17–26 MIL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 43.