St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Bryan TorresBatting2-4
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mitchell homered to center (421 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.0–6
- 5Contreras doubled to center, Yelich scored and Chourio scored, Turang to third.0–3
- 4Bauers homered to right center (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML STL +178 / MIL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +15 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +92 Elo | MIL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 17–117th of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–21 | 30–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26–3 | 23–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 17–25 MIL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.