Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Coleman CrowPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Turang hit sacrifice fly to right, Yelich scored.5–4
- 8Bauers grounded out to second, Chourio scored, Turang to second.4–4
- 5Chourio homered to center (431 feet), Yelich scored.3–4
- 4Allen hit sacrifice fly to center, Shewmake scored, Meyers to third.1–4
- 4Meyers doubled to left, Walker scored, Shewmake to third.1–3
- 4Smith doubled to right, Alvarez scored, Walker to third.1–2
- 3Hamilton homered to left (343 feet).1–1
- 2Smith homered to left center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML MIL -144 / HOU +119
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.3%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | MIL: Coleman Crow: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–22 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28–2 | 31–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.