Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Bauers homered to left (347 feet), Vaughn scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML MIL -193 / HOU +159
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -171
- HOU +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 3.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +52 Elo | MIL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–24 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28–2 | 33–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.