Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith tripled to right, Walker scored and Paredes scored.9–11
- 8Paredes walked, Cole scored on Soto wild pitch, Walker to second.9–9
- 8Walker reached on infield single to second, Peña scored on error, Cole to second, Cole safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Lowe.9–8
- 8Alvarez singled to center, Vázquez scored, Peña to third.9–7
- 8Vázquez doubled to center, Allen scored.9–6
- 8Gonzales doubled to right, Lowe scored.9–5
- 7Paredes homered to left (363 feet), Alvarez scored.8–5
- 7Garcia doubled to center, Cruz scored.8–3
- 7Gonzales homered to left center (370 feet), Reynolds scored.7–3
- 6Triolo singled to right, Cruz scored, Ozuna to second.5–3
- 5Smith singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.4–3
- 4Davis homered to left (396 feet), Ozuna scored, Garcia scored and Triolo scored.4–2
- 3Paredes singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.0–2
- 3Alvarez singled to right, Allen scored, Peña to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML PIT -144 / HOU +119
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.7%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 13–1724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–31 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25–2 | 34–24–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–5 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.