Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Riley doubled to center, Dubón scored.3–6
- 5Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored, Dubón to third.3–5
- 5Dubón doubled to right, Harris II scored, Olson to third.3–4
- 3Dubón homered to left (405 feet), Albies scored.3–3
- 3Ozuna singled to center, Gonzales scored, Lowe to third.3–1
- 3Gonzales reached on infield single to third, Triolo scored.2–1
- 3Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Horwitz scored, Triolo to third.1–1
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to right, Riley scored, Yastrzemski to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML PIT +119 / ATL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.7%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +69 Elo | ATL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 19–114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–32 | 41–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26–2 | 30–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–9 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.