Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Paredes homered to left (356 feet).5–1
- 6Gonzales scored on error, Triolo safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Peña, Cruz safe at third on error.5–0
- 6O'Hearn homered to right (349 feet), Reynolds scored.4–0
- 6Reynolds singled to center, Lowe scored.2–0
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Lowe scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML PIT -108 / HOU -112
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 14–1724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–32 | 29–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25–2 | 35–24–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–6 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.