Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left (410 feet).2–9
- 1Ohtani homered to center (406 feet), Freeland scored.1–9
- 1Freeland grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Muncy scored, Ward scored on error and Rushing scored on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Freeland second.1–7
- 1Ward doubled to center, Freeman and Betts scored, Muncy to third.1–4
- 1Pages homered to left (394 feet), Ohtani scored.1–2
- 1Peraza tripled to center, Meckler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 75%
- ML LAA +290 / LAD -374
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 74.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -308
- LAA +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +17 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +183 Elo | LAD 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 74.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 21–112nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 15781st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–35 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33 | 25–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–10 LAD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.