Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch FarrisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Díaz walked, Simpson scored, Walls to second, Williamson to third.2–5
- 7Williamson singled to center, Caminero scored, Simpson to third.2–4
- 7O'Hoppe homered to left (384 feet).2–3
- 3Mullins walked, Palacios scored, Mesa Jr. to second, Caminero to third.1–3
- 3Mesa Jr. singled to center, Aranda scored, Caminero to second, Palacios to third.1–2
- 2Siri scored on McClanahan wild pitch, O'Hoppe to third on wild pitch by McClanahan.1–1
- 2Siri scored on McClanahan wild pitch, O'Hoppe to third on wild pitch by McClanahan.1–1
- 1Aranda homered to right (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML LAA +168 / TB -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 63.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −2 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +97 Elo | TB 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 20–61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 29th of 301450 | Elo rating | 151311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–32 | 34–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 28–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–12 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.