Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meckler grounded out to shortstop, Grissom scored.5–8
- 8Adell grounded out to second, Trout scored, Grissom to third.4–8
- 8Grissom doubled to right, Neto scored, Trout to third.3–8
- 7Fortes hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Palacios scored.2–8
- 7Palacios tripled to right, Simpson scored and Dunn scored.2–7
- 7Dunn reached on bunt single to second, Caminero scored, Simpson to second.2–5
- 7Aranda homered to right center (410 feet).2–4
- 7Díaz homered to left center (400 feet), Mullins scored.2–3
- 5Neto singled to right, Siri scored.2–1
- 3Grissom singled to left, Neto scored.1–1
- 1Díaz homered to right (364 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML LAA +143 / TB -173
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 61.1%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +7 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +79 Elo | TB 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 19–51st of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 29th of 301446 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–31 | 33–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 18–9 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31 | 26–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–11 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.