Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivero doubled to center, Walton scored.14–3
- 9Peraza homered to right center (380 feet).13–3
- 9Adell homered to center (431 feet), Trout scored and Siri scored.12–3
- 9Angels challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Jose Siri grounds into a force out, second baseman Ben Williamson to shortstop Taylor Walls. Adam Frazier scores. Mike Trout to 3rd. Vaugh9–3
- 9Grissom hit by pitch, Rivero scored, Trout to second, Frazier to third.8–3
- 7Neto scored on Seymour wild pitch, Trout to second on wild pitch by Seymour.7–3
- 7Neto scored on Seymour wild pitch, Trout to second on wild pitch by Seymour.7–3
- 5Vilade grounded out to shortstop, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.6–3
- 5Caminero doubled to third, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.6–2
- 5Trout homered to left (417 feet).6–1
- 4Walton doubled to right, Meckler scored.5–1
- 1Díaz homered to left (396 feet).4–1
- 1Meckler homered to right (397 feet), Trout scored, Grissom scored and Soler scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML LAA +143 / TB -173
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 63.5%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +96 Elo | TB 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 20–51st of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–32 | 34–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 19–9 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 27–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–12 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.