Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meckler doubled to center, Trout scored and Soler scored.8–2
- 4Rumfield scored on fielding error by Adell.8–0
- 4Castro homered to right (433 feet), Julien scored and McCarthy scored.7–0
- 4McCarthy singled to left, Karros scored on error, McCarthy safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Meckler, Julien safe at third on error.4–0
- 2Julien singled to right, S. Thompson scored, Julien thrown out at second, Karros to third.3–0
- 2Tovar hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored.2–0
- 2Goodman homered to left (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 59%
- ML COL +135 / LAA -163
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 57.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -146
- COL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +7 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +52 Elo | LAA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 12–1727th of 30 |
| 1st of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 30th of 301404 | Elo rating | 144729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 27–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30–3 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–3 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.