San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting4-5
- Logan WebbPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tovar homered to left (406 feet), Castro scored.6–8
- 9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Hunter Goodman homers (414 feet) on a fly ball to left field. Jake McCarthy scores. Tyler Freeman scores.6–6
- 9Chapman singled to right, Devers scored.6–3
- 9Devers tripled to right, Arraez scored.5–3
- 8Tovar homered to center (441 feet), Johnston scored.4–3
- 8Eldridge hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.4–1
- 4Bader singled to right, Lee scored, Eldridge to third.3–1
- 4Susac hit sacrifice fly to center, Chapman scored.2–1
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Eldridge scored.1–1
- 2Tovar stole home, Julien stole second, Julien safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Arraez.0–1
- 2Tovar stole home, Julien stole second, Julien safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Arraez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML SF -154 / COL +128
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SF: Elo 58.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +56 Elo | SF 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 10–1527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 21st of 301480 | Elo rating | 140130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–31 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26–4 | 25–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 30–9 COL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 39.