San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting3-4
- Tanner GordonPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Rodríguez homered to left (383 feet), Eldridge scored.19–6
- 8Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.17–6
- 8Devers singled to center, Susac scored on error and Cox scored on throwing error by center fielder Freeman, Devers safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Mejia.16–6
- 7Fulford singled to right, Goodman scored, Julien to third.14–6
- 7Lee singled to center, Arraez scored.14–5
- 7Arraez singled to left, Devers scored.13–5
- 6Eldridge homered to center (453 feet).12–5
- 5McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to left, Johnston scored.11–5
- 5Johnston singled to center, Freeman scored.11–4
- 5Adames homered to left (380 feet), Schmitt scored, Devers scored and Arraez scored.11–3
- 5Schmitt singled to center, Gilbert scored.7–3
- 5Gilbert tripled to center, Chapman scored.6–3
- 5Chapman doubled to right, Lee scored.5–3
- 4Karros scored on error and Stevens scored on throwing error by pitcher Ray, Castro safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Ray.4–3
- 4Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Susac scored.4–1
- 4Schmitt singled to right, Eldridge scored, Susac to third.3–1
- 2Fulford hit sacrifice fly to first, Karros scored.2–1
- 2Susac doubled to right, Eldridge scored.2–0
- 1Lee singled to center, Devers scored, Adames to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -117 / COL -103
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- SF: Elo 58.8%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -106
- COL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.6 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +62 Elo | SF 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 140630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–33 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26–5 | 26–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 30–11 COL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 41.