San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman singled to left, Lee scored.3–8
- 8Gilbert homered to right center (421 feet), Eldridge scored.2–8
- 7Rumfield singled to left, McCarthy scored.0–8
- 7McCarthy singled to left, Freeman scored.0–7
- 7Karros homered to right center (396 feet).0–6
- 5McCarthy singled to left, Julien scored, McCarthy to second, Sullivan to third.0–5
- 4McCarthy homered to right center (427 feet), Julien scored.0–4
- 1S. Thompson hit by pitch, Goodman scored, Tovar to second, Castro to third.0–2
- 1Castro singled to center, McCarthy scored, Goodman to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -120 / COL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- SF: Elo 59.6%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.6 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +68 Elo | SF 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 11–1527th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301478 | Elo rating | 140330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–32 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26–4 | 26–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 30–10 COL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 40.