Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jose SiriBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rumfield hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored, McCarthy to third.9–8
- 8Soler tripled to right, Frazier scored and Walton scored.8–8
- 8Goodman homered to left (384 feet), McCarthy scored and Freeman scored.8–6
- 8Freeman singled to left, Karros scored, McCarthy to second.5–6
- 8Karros doubled to left, S. Thompson scored.4–6
- 5Grissom scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Peraza to third.3–6
- 5Grissom scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Peraza to third.3–6
- 5S. Thompson singled to right, Castro scored, Julien to third.3–5
- 3Siri homered to left center (390 feet), Soler scored, Adell scored and Peraza scored.2–5
- 3Adell singled to left, Walton scored, Soler to second.2–1
- 3McCarthy homered to center (397 feet).2–0
- 1Johnston singled to center, Freeman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 64%
- ML COL +162 / LAA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 62.9%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- LAA -174
- COL +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +7 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +92 Elo | LAA 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30–3 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–3 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.