Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Johnston singled to left, Rumfield scored.4–11
- 6Madrigal singled to center, Peraza scored.3–11
- 6Peraza doubled to left, Meckler scored.3–10
- 5Adell singled to center, Siri scored.3–9
- 5Freeman homered to left center (387 feet), Julien scored.3–8
- 4Grissom homered to left (408 feet), Meckler scored.1–8
- 4Johnston doubled to right, Goodman scored.1–6
- 2Peraza singled to left, Grissom scored.0–6
- 2Trout scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Grissom to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–5
- 2Trout scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Grissom to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–5
- 2Grissom singled to left, Trout to second, O'Hoppe scored on error, Grissom to second on error, Trout safe at third on throwing error by left fielder S. Thompson.0–4
- 2O'Hoppe singled to right, Siri scored.0–3
- 2Madrigal scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Siri to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–2
- 2Madrigal scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Siri to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–2
- 2Siri doubled to left, Walton scored, Madrigal to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML COL +124 / LAA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAA: Elo 59.1%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -134
- COL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +64 Elo | LAA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 12–1827th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 144329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–29 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30–3 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–3 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.