Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Sebastian RiveroBatting5-5, 6 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edgardo HenriquezPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivero doubled to left, Siri scored.13–5
- 7Neto homered to center (404 feet), Siri scored and Rivero scored.12–5
- 7Rivero singled to right, Madrigal scored, Siri to third.9–5
- 7Adell homered to left center (433 feet), Schanuel scored.8–5
- 6Ward homered to right center (397 feet).6–5
- 6Rushing homered to right center (378 feet), Tucker scored and Call scored. challenged call on the field was upheld6–4
- 5Siri singled to right, Adell scored and Meckler scored, Madrigal thrown out at home.6–1
- 4Rivero singled to right, Adell scored and Madrigal scored.4–1
- 3Tucker grounded out to catcher, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.2–1
- 2Rivero singled to center, Adell scored and Madrigal scored, Siri to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML LAA +214 / LAD -266
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -228
- LAA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +152 Elo | LAD 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 22–112nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 29th of 301444 | Elo rating | 15791st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–36 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 33–29 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 26–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–11 LAD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.