Colorado Rockies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cortes hit by pitch, Soderstrom scored, Langeliers to second, Kurtz to third.5–7
- 6Soderstrom doubled to left, Williams scored.5–6
- 6Williams singled to center, Gelof scored.5–5
- 5Rumfield doubled to center, Julien scored, Castro thrown out at home.5–4
- 5Thompson scored on a passed ball by Langeliers, Julien to second on passed ball by Langeliers.4–4
- 5Thompson scored on a passed ball by Langeliers, Julien to second on passed ball by Langeliers.4–4
- 5B. Sullivan hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored.3–4
- 4Gelof homered to left center (400 feet), Bolte scored.2–4
- 4Johnston singled to right, Rumfield scored, Johnston thrown out at second.2–2
- 3B. Sullivan homered to right (371 feet).1–2
- 1Wilson singled to left, Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML COL +134 / ATH -162
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ATH: Elo 62.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 6.8 – 7.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 14.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −39 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 1.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Joey Estes: team allows 1.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +85 Elo | ATH 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 14–1825th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–35 | 37–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 34–32 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34–3 | 33–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–7 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
