Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suzuki grounded out to third, Bregman scored.3–7
- 6Busch homered to right center (424 feet).2–7
- 3Julien singled to center, Goodman scored and Johnston scored, Karros to second.1–7
- 3Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Swanson scored.1–5
- 2McCarthy singled to center, Julien scored.0–5
- 2Julien doubled to center, Karros scored.0–4
- 2Tovar homered to left center (433 feet).0–3
- 1Goodman homered to right center (413 feet), Rumfield scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -168 / COL +139
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.7 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +18 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +76 Elo | CHC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.530th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 12–1927th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 140130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–42 | 33–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–30 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27–5 | 32–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–5 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.