San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Busch singled to right, Swanson scored on fielding error by right fielder Bericoto.2–3
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to right (403 feet).2–2
- 9Chapman hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.2–1
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (386 feet).1–1
- 6Devers homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML SF +124 / CHC -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.4%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -134
- SF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +8 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +81 Elo | CHC 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 19–148th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–35 | 24–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 14–28 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27–5 | 34–25–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–9 CHC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.