San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turang singled to center, Chourio scored.3–8
- 8Chourio doubled to center, Yelich scored.3–7
- 8Yelich singled to right, Mitchell scored and Frelick scored.3–6
- 8Lee singled to left, Eldridge scored, Susac to second.3–4
- 8Eldridge singled to right, Arraez scored.2–4
- 7Turang singled to right, Hamilton scored, Yelich to third.1–4
- 6Adames homered to left (368 feet).1–3
- 1Bauers homered to center (412 feet), Yelich scored and Chourio scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 70%
- ML SF +218 / MIL -272
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.5%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -233
- SF +233 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.6 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +119 Elo | MIL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 20–113rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–34 | 33–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 18–22 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26–5 | 26–29–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–9 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.