San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Chourio scored, Ortiz to third.2–16
- 8Ortiz doubled to right, Hamilton scored and Yelich scored, Chourio to third.2–15
- 8Yelich singled to left, Rengifo scored, Hamilton to third.2–13
- 7Chourio singled to right, Hamilton scored, Yelich to second.2–12
- 7Yelich singled to center, Rengifo scored, Hamilton to third.2–11
- 6Vaughn singled to right, Contreras scored on error and Turang scored, Vaughn safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Lee, Bauers safe at third on error.2–10
- 4Contreras grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Yelich scored, Turang out at second, Chourio to third.2–8
- 2Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.2–7
- 2Turang tripled to right, Yelich scored and Chourio scored.2–6
- 2Chourio doubled to right, Rengifo scored and Hamilton scored, Yelich to third.2–4
- 2Rengifo singled to center, Frelick scored.2–2
- 2Frelick doubled to right, Bauers scored.2–1
- 2Chapman homered to center (391 feet), Lee scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML SF +138 / MIL -167
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.5%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +96 Elo | MIL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 19–116th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301478 | Elo rating | 15593rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 32–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 18–21 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26–5 | 25–29–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–8 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.