Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bregman homered to left center (404 feet).1–5
- 3Winn singled to center, Herrera scored and Burleson scored.0–5
- 3Burleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third. Burleson to second.0–3
- 1Burleson popped out to third, Herrera scored, Velázquez to second.0–2
- 1Walker singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML CHC -101 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- STL: Elo 46.9%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 148519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–35 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–23–5 | 24–29–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 23–18 STL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 41.