Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting3-4
- Kyle LeahyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Suzuki scored, Swanson to second, Amaya to third.6–1
- 9Happ scored on Pushard wild pitch, Amaya to second on wild pitch by Pushard, Suzuki to third on wild pitch by Pushard.5–1
- 9Happ scored on Pushard wild pitch, Amaya to second on wild pitch by Pushard, Suzuki to third on wild pitch by Pushard.5–1
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (444 feet).4–1
- 6Busch hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.3–1
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Swanson to third.2–1
- 5Busch singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–1
- 4Burleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Burleson thrown out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -131 / STL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +20 Elo | CHC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 14–1314th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–35 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22–5 | 24–28–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 22–18 STL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 40.