Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nelson VelazquezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch grounded out to third, Crow-Armstrong scored.5–6
- 8Fermín singled to left, Velázquez scored, Winn to second.4–6
- 5Herrera homered to left center (409 feet).4–5
- 4Saggese homered to left center (402 feet).4–4
- 2Busch singled to left, Swanson scored, Hoerner to second.4–3
- 1Velázquez homered to left center (411 feet), Herrera scored and Walker scored.3–3
- 1Happ homered to right center (407 feet), Busch scored and Bregman scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / STL +112
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.1%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 13–1316th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–34 | 32–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22–5 | 23–28–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 22–17 STL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.