Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Gelof singled to center, Rooker scored, Bolte to second.2–1
- 3Kurtz homered to left center (383 feet).1–1
- 1Bregman grounded out to third, Hoerner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML ATH +109 / CHC -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +71 Elo | CHC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 18–118th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–29 | 24–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27–3 | 31–24–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–7 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
