New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger walked, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.4–6
- 9Judge walked, Escarra scored, Rice to second, Grisham to third.3–6
- 9Rice walked, McMahon scored, Grisham to second, Escarra to third.2–6
- 8Gelof singled to left, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.1–6
- 7Kurtz homered to center (410 feet), Thomas scored.1–5
- 6Soderstrom homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 4Bellinger scored on error by second baseman Williams, Chisholm Jr. stole third.1–2
- 4Bellinger scored on error by second baseman Williams, Chisholm Jr. stole third.1–2
- 1Langeliers homered to center (426 feet), Kurtz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -162 / ATH +134
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 10–1629th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 147822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–25 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 24–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30–4 | 27–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–7 ATH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.