New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joel KuhnelPitching1.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof singled to center, Rooker scored, Bolte to second.8–2
- 7Rice homered to center (411 feet).8–1
- 4Judge grounded out to third, Grisham scored, Rice to third.7–1
- 3McMahon homered to right center (401 feet).6–1
- 2Rice singled to center, Caballero scored, Grisham to second.5–1
- 1Kurtz homered to center (408 feet).4–1
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left center (380 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.4–0
- 1Judge singled to center, Rice scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML NYY -143 / ATH +119
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -129
- ATH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +52 Elo | NYY 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 10–1528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301557 | Elo rating | 148021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–25 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–30–4 | 26–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–7 ATH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.