New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kurtz doubled to center, Hernaiz scored.13–8
- 7Heim homered to right center (409 feet), Kurtz scored and Bolte scored.13–7
- 7Rooker homered to left center (404 feet).13–4
- 3Bellinger singled to right, Rice scored.13–3
- 3Rice tripled to right, Schuemann scored and Wells scored.12–3
- 3Schuemann doubled to left, Grisham scored and Volpe scored.10–3
- 3Volpe singled to center, Caballero scored, Grisham to third.8–3
- 3Grisham singled to center, Bellinger scored and Judge scored, Caballero to second.7–3
- 3Caballero walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.5–3
- 3Judge singled to center, Goldschmidt scored.4–3
- 3Rice doubled to right, Schuemann scored and Wells scored, Goldschmidt to third.3–3
- 3Goldschmidt reached on infield single to first, Volpe scored, Wells to second, Schuemann to third.1–3
- 1Butler singled to left, Heim scored.0–3
- 1Cortes and Soderstrom scored on error, Heim safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Grisham, Heim to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYY -172 / ATH +142
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.6%, market 60.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -153
- ATH +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.5 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +68 Elo | NYY 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 11–1629th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301557 | Elo rating | 148021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–24 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–4 | 28–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–8 ATH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.