Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Suzuki scored, Swanson to third.6–7
- 9Swanson singled to center, Alcántara scored, Suzuki to third.6–6
- 9Ballesteros reached on infield single to third, Happ scored.6–5
- 9Happ doubled to right, Busch scored.6–4
- 7Happ homered to right (446 feet), Bregman scored.6–3
- 7Heim homered to center (421 feet).6–1
- 7Soderstrom homered to left center (396 feet).5–1
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (383 feet).4–1
- 6Langeliers homered to center (358 feet), Bolte scored.4–0
- 6Bolte doubled to center, Williams scored.2–0
- 4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Shea Langeliers homers (369 feet) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML ATH +123 / CHC -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- ATH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.7 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −8 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 24–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28–3 | 32–25–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–7 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
