Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kurtz singled to left, Williams scored.5–4
- 8Athletics challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Shea Langeliers scores. Tyler Soderstrom out at 2nd on the throw4–4
- 8Thomas homered to left center (426 feet).3–4
- 4Busch tripled to right, Happ scored.2–4
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (378 feet), Hoerner scored.2–3
- 2Suzuki homered to left center (408 feet).2–1
- 2Williams singled to center, Gelof scored.2–0
- 1Soderstrom grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cortes scored, Langeliers out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML ATH +113 / CHC -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -123
- ATH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −5 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +71 Elo | CHC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 18–128th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 24–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28–3 | 31–25–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–7 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
