San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Eric HaaseBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo singled to left, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.12–9
- 9Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to first, Sánchez scored, Perkins out at second, Ortiz to third.12–8
- 9Perkins walked, Chourio scored, Ortiz to second, Sánchez to third.12–7
- 8Hamilton homered to left center (380 feet).12–6
- 7Chourio homered to center (423 feet), Yelich scored.12–5
- 7Adames singled to center, Devers scored.12–3
- 7Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Gilbert scored, Devers to second.11–3
- 7Haase homered to center (406 feet), Lee scored, Eldridge scored and Chapman scored.10–3
- 5Chourio homered to right (353 feet), Yelich scored.6–3
- 3Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to right, Eldridge scored, Chapman to third.6–1
- 3Chapman singled to center, Lee scored, Eldridge to second.5–1
- 3Lee doubled to right, Adames scored.4–1
- 1Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored.3–1
- 1Chapman doubled to left, Lee scored, Eldridge to third.3–0
- 1Eldridge singled to center, Arraez scored, Lee to third.2–0
- 1Schmitt homered to left center (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML SF +158 / MIL -193
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 5.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Coleman Crow: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +107 Elo | MIL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 21–125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–35 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27–5 | 27–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–10 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.