San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bericoto homered to right center (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML SF +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −17 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +102 Elo | MIL 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 21–112nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–35 | 34–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 18–23 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26–5 | 27–29–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–10 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.