San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-3, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schmitt homered to left center (424 feet).18–3
- 9Cox homered to center (446 feet).17–3
- 8Amaya doubled to left, Ramirez scored.16–3
- 8Suzuki homered to left center (387 feet).16–2
- 6Kelly singled to left, Suzuki scored, Ramirez to second.16–1
- 6Chapman homered to left (432 feet), Lee scored and Eldridge scored.16–0
- 6Adames homered to left center (388 feet), Devers scored.13–0
- 6Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Schmitt scored.11–0
- 6Devers doubled to center, Cox scored, Schmitt to third.10–0
- 5Chapman hit sacrifice fly to right, Adames scored, Lee to third.9–0
- 4Schmitt homered to left center (411 feet), Gilbert scored.8–0
- 4Chapman homered to center (382 feet), Arraez scored, Adames scored and Eldridge scored.6–0
- 1Adames homered to left (427 feet), Arraez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML SF +134 / CHC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 5.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +67 Elo | CHC 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 19–138th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–35 | 24–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 20–23 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27–5 | 33–25–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–9 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.