San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Moises BallesterosBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Chapman singled to center, Cox scored.2–1
- 3Ballesteros singled to center, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–1
- 1Lee singled to center, Devers scored, Arraez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML SF +104 / CHC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +65 Elo | CHC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–35 | 24–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 14–29 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28–5 | 34–26–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–10 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.