Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10S. Thompson singled to center, Castro scored and Johnston scored, Tovar to second.9–7
- 10Frelick singled to right, Bauers scored, Mitchell to second.9–5
- 10Mitchell singled to left, Sánchez scored, Bauers to third.8–5
- 10Bauers doubled to center, Yelich scored and Turang scored, Sánchez to third.7–5
- 9Goodman hit sacrifice fly to right, Fulford scored, Freeman to third.5–5
- 9Stevens walked, S. Thompson scored, Freeman to second, Fulford to third.5–4
- 9Vaughn singled to center, Bauers scored and Frelick scored.5–3
- 9Frelick doubled to center, Perkins scored, Bauers to third.3–3
- 9Bauers singled to center, Turang scored, Perkins to second.2–3
- 3Goodman homered to left (411 feet).1–3
- 2Julien singled to left, Tovar scored.1–2
- 2Rengifo grounded out to pitcher, Bauers scored, Frelick to third.1–1
- 1Freeman grounded out to second, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -161 / COL +133
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.6%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -144
- COL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.4 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −5 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +127 Elo | MIL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 140530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–26 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30–2 | 30–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–10 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.