Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to center (424 feet).12–4
- 9Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.12–3
- 9Mitchell tripled to center, Vaughn scored and Sánchez scored.11–3
- 9Sánchez doubled to left, Contreras scored, Vaughn to third.9–3
- 6Contreras grounded out to third, Ortiz scored, Turang to second.8–3
- 6Turang singled to right, Perkins scored and Rengifo scored, Ortiz to third.7–3
- 6Ortiz walked, Mitchell scored, Perkins to second, Rengifo to third.5–3
- 6Sánchez homered to left center (447 feet), Vaughn scored.4–3
- 6Vaughn tripled to right, Contreras scored.2–3
- 5Johnston hit sacrifice fly to left, Fulford scored.1–3
- 2Rengifo doubled to center, Vaughn scored.1–2
- 1Goodman grounded out to first, Tovar scored.0–2
- 1Tovar doubled to right, Castro scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML MIL -188 / COL +154
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.8%, market 62.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −23 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +163 Elo | MIL 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 12–1827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301562 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–26 | 33–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 32–29 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31–2 | 31–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–10 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.