Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zach AgnosPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers homered to left (378 feet).7–1
- 8Turang homered to left (367 feet).6–1
- 7Bauers and Perkins scored on error, Frelick safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Rumfield.5–1
- 7Contreras homered to left center (434 feet).3–1
- 5Karros doubled to right, Julien scored.2–1
- 2Hamilton homered to center (426 feet).2–0
- 1Turang homered to center (444 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 73%
- ML MIL -313 / COL +248
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.1%, market 72.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -264
- COL +264 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.6 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +17 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Zach Agnos: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +131 Elo | MIL 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 72.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 12–1727th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–26 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30–2 | 31–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–10 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.